Archive for August 2013
Jack is tossing a fair coin. John believes in gambler’s luck, i.e. that if Jack has tossed more heads than tails so far then the next toss is more likely to be a tail. This way, in the long run things balance out. Jim knows that previous coin tosses have no effect on the next toss. John and Jim start betting with each other on the result of each coin toss. Who is likely to win more of the bets, John or Jim?
Julian Baggini’s “Do They Think You’re Stupid” is a light, amusing read with a serious meta-lesson tucked away inside. Presented as a list of 100 common argumentative fallacies and why they’re wrong, it can actually be interrogated as a guide to good analysis. Read the rest of this entry »