Jack is tossing a fair coin. John believes in gambler’s luck, i.e. that if Jack has tossed more heads than tails so far then the next toss is more likely to be a tail. This way, in the long run things balance out. Jim knows that previous coin tosses have no effect on the next toss. John and Jim start betting with each other on the result of each coin toss. Who is likely to win more of the bets, John or Jim?
Julian Baggini’s “Do They Think You’re Stupid” is a light, amusing read with a serious meta-lesson tucked away inside. Presented as a list of 100 common argumentative fallacies and why they’re wrong, it can actually be interrogated as a guide to good analysis. Read the rest of this entry »
The Dell Inspiron 14z is meant to have 4-5 hours battery life out of the box. Suffice to say that this wasn’t the case when I first put Ubuntu 12.04 (Precise Pangolin) on it. Two hours if I was lucky, more often 90 minutes or less.
When Katie and I started going out, and for a long time afterwards, we lived apart. At first that just made sense (you don’t move in with someone three days after meeting them) and later it was a necessity, while I was working in London and she was finishing her doctorate in Oxford. Overall, long distance and living apart is rubbish, but it did mean that we managed to avoid all the thorny financial decisions that being in a relationship normally brings for much longer than you’d expect.
How can I be a good parent? Who should I be to be a good parent? What does it even mean to be a good parent? For the last 8 months especially, these are all questions I’ve been thinking about a lot. And, with any luck, in the coming years, I might unearth some answers.
Of course, it’s relatively easy to just think about it. Actually writing it down is much harder, and posting it on the internet for all to see is even worse. After all, I could be wrong. Or – infinitely worse – I might fail to live up to the standards I set myself. But as Cialdani shows, publicly putting a stake in the ground only increases the odds I will succeed. And I’d rather have better chances than unembarrassing failure. On that note…
Everyone has a Golden Orb, a Golden Orb of Happy High Confidence. Everyone. You have one, you just have to find it, and once you have found it then it will be there for you whenever you want it or need it. Here is one way you can find it.
100 dwarves are captured by an evil goblin milliner who has an over-abundance of red and blue hats and who really does not like dwarves. Being an evil goblin, he has concocted a fiendish, fiendishly complex game by which he hopes to kill as many of them as possible: